2/26/2024 0 Comments Iridium metal price forecast![]() The share has come off an all-time high just over a year ago in a correction that potentially presages a new era for the company. Anglo American Platinum (Amplats), for instance has halved in the last 12 months. The share prices for the JSE’s major PGM producers reflect some of the market uncertainty as well as company specific concerns. The platinum market is inversely heading for serial deficits of its own, the price of which will exceed palladium by 2025, says Cooper. The serial deficits that drove the palladium price to its historic highs between 2016 to 2021 are over as automakers switch to cheaper platinum for standard autocatalyst production. “We really think this will be a watershed year for PGMs,” says Cooper. What can be said however is that PGMs are in for a ride, especially given short-term macroeconomic concerns linked to the reopening of China’s economy this year, which may disappoint depending on the extent of its metal inventories. The mines required for two-thirds of projected lithium supply have yet to be built. So fragile is the lithium market that even increases in the adoption of home solar applications has the potential to disturb its balance, he says. Henk de Hoop, CEO of industry consultancy SFA Oxford says uncertainty in lithium supply is a major concern for OEMs. The question, however, is where it goes from now, and how might it proliferate? Again, analysts can’t say with accuracy. Standard Chartered Bank precious metals analyst, Suki Cooper estimates that hydrogen technology, which intensively uses PGMs, could drive 450,000 to 850,000 ounces in new annual PGM demand by 2030 – a significant variance underpinning the margins of uncertainty.Īnother technology, electric vehicle (EV) batteries, is already here. Does it work on an industrial scale, can it be produced cost effectively, and how might supporting infrastructure be rolled out are questions that continue to shape its future. Analysts can’t tell how quickly hydrogen technology, which is PGM intensive, might be rolled out. On the demand side, there’s even less clarity. Primary supply from South African has been heavily disrupted by Eskom curtailments, an 80% increase in costs over the last few years, and under-investment in resource development which could some shafts – now cash-burning – close. Russian PGM exports are sanctioned, though they still turn up in China. The outlook for primary metal supply from the world’s two largest producers, South Africa and Russia, has changed enormously. ![]() The challenge for industry analysts is two-fold. Confusingly, the trajectories of lesser known PGMs, such as iridium and ruthenium are again different. The outlook for the platinum price has improved recently, but the prices of other metals mined as its by-product, such as palladium and rhodium, are heading in the opposite direction. MAKING sense of the platinum group metals (PGM) industry right now is hard to do. ![]()
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